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FW: Projection for 16th observation
Let's wait for one month to see how close the projection would be this time.
T. Jay BAI, Ph.D.
Quantitative Ecologist
MDSM Research
PO Box 272628
Fort Collins, CO 80527
970-490-8345
Bai@gpsr.colostate.edu
http://lamar.colostate.edu/~jbai
-----Original Message-----
From: Jay Bai [SMTP:bai@gpsr.colostate.edu]
Sent: Monday, June 22, 1998 7:38 AM
To: Marco Canepa (E-mail)
Cc: ESA (E-mail); MDSM (E-mail)
Subject: Projection for 16th observation
Dear Marco,
This is the second response to your reply last Friday, 6-19-98.
You said in the mail:
"Surveys are monthly and the 15th observation data are:
A: 520
B: 234
C: 1120
D: 1404
E: 370.."
Based on your new information, I put the 15th observation to the MDSM model.
The attached table is the output.
The projection for 16th observation is:
460, 232, 1148, 1417, and 350.
Let's wait and see how close is the projection this time.
Also, you may have down loaded the SMM52 program, by now.
If the output is different from this list, please let me know.
Thanks,
T. Jay BAI
k_
P(15) D E IV R T P(16)
==== ==== ===== ===== ====== ====== ====== =======
A 597.5941 520 535.5188 0.277635 -62.0753 0.883982 459.6704
B 255.0158 234 238.2032 0.123494 -16.8127 0.992368 232.214
C 1133.465 1120 1122.693 0.58205 -10.7721 1.025224 1148.251
D 1408.263 1404 1404.853 0.728333 -3.4104 1.009408 1417.209
E 410.2986 370 378.0597 0.196002 -32.2389 0.945994 350.0177
Vector Length 1964.292 1920.331 1928.86 1 72.82184 2.175112 1927.354
Cosine 0.9987 0.9995
SMC 1.0008